All Time Highs Everywhere and Windsurf’s Last-Minute Acquisition

View From the Arch #92

July 18, 2025

Everything is up, yet again.

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin continues to go bonkers, on track for a nearly 10% gain:

And ETF inflows remain strong as ever:

  • Bitcoin ETFs logged their biggest day of inflows in 2025 at a whopping $1.18B. 

  • Ether ETFs also record their second-biggest day of inflows ever at $383.1M. 

  • Bitcoin is on track for a nearly 10% gain and its best week since April 25, while ether is up more than 21%, heading for its best week since May 9. 

  • That’s the kind of weekly performance that makes stock investors week into their 2% annual returns. 

And if you need more proofpoints that you should definitely not be selling: 

XRP is finally getting its moment:

  • ProShares is preparing to launch its XRP Futures ETF today. XRP holders have been waiting for this moment for practically forever. 

  • As a result, XRP finally broke above $3 with massive trading volume ahead of the launch.

Meanwhile Congress actually did something (crazy!):

  • The U.S. Congress passed the country’s first major standalone crypto bill on Thursday. The House approved the GENIUS bill, which sets federal rules for stablecoins, requiring issuers to fully back them with cash or Treasuries (so essentially, a law that says stablecoins should be stable…).

  • The Act also extends U.S. jurisdiction to foreign issuers offering stablecoins to American users and prohibits algorithmic stablecoins from qualifying as “payment stablecoins”. 

Headlines:

This Week in TradFi

Solid week for markets in the U.S.!

  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs yesterday, as investors embraced strong economic data and earnings reports showing that American consumers continue to spend. 

    • U.S. retail sales bounced back sharply in June, showing improvement in economic activity and giving the Fed cover to delay cutting interest rates. Retail sales increased 0.6% last month after a 0.9% drop in May.

    • First-time applications for unemployment benefits also dropped to a three-month low last week, consistent with steady job growth data in July.  

  • Wall Street also opened higher today, with investors weighing the earnings reports that have already come out. 

    • Netflix and Interactive Brokers both reported better-than-expected results. 

  • The week ahead will be almost entirely focused on the many other companies releasing Q2 earnings, including Alphabet and Tesla.

    • Many industrials will also be in the earnings spotlight, having been especially important to S&P gains this year.

On the international front:

  • China is expected to leave benchmark lending rates steady on Monday, as signs of economic resilience reduce the urgency for more monetary easing. 

  • The Indian rupee opened higher today, tracking a recovery in Asian peers - supported by a pause in the U.S. dollar index’s rise. 

    • The dollar index fell about 0.2% in Asia to 98.40, helping most Asian currencies climb higher.

  • Gold prices also firmed up today on a weaker dollar.

    • Spot gold was up 0.4% this morning, after falling 1.1% in the prior session, and U.S. gold futures were up 0.4%.

  • Japan’s core inflation slowed in June, but stayed above the central bank’s 2% target. 

    • The country’s core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food costs, rose 3.3% in June YoY, matching median market forecast. 

    • The increase was smaller than the 3.7% increase in May.

    • Core inflation has remained above the central bank’s 2% target for 39 straight months.

  • European shares rose today, boosted by gains in Vestas and Saab.

    • STOXX 600 rose 0.5% as of this morning, on track for a second weekly gain. 

  • German producer prices fell 1.3% in June YoY, matching expectations.

  • The pound is set to finish off the week down on the dollar and barely stronger against the euro.

    • UK data this week showed hotter than expected inflation numbers and slowing wage growth. 

    • As a result, investors no longer expect the Bank of England to cut rates in September. 

    • It does still seem likely that the BoE will cut rates in August and one more time before year-end.

This Week in Tech

Just one big story for you this week - Cognition, the startup behind the AI coding agent Devin, is acquiring AI coding startup Windsurf.

  • It’s been an absolutely wild few days for employees at Windsurf.

  • The acquisition announcement comes just days after Google hired away Windsurf’s CEO Varun Mohan, cofounder Douglas Chen, and a few other research leaders in a $2.4B reverse-acquihire, leaving the remaining 250 employees behind with nothing to show for the deal. 

  • Google’s deal occurred only hours after OpenAI’s $3B offer to acquire Windsurf expired. 

  • “The last 72 hours have been the wildest rollercoaster ride of my career,” said Jeff Wang, Windsurf’s former head of business, who was made interim CEO of the startup.

  • Windsurf is reported to have reached $82M in ARR, with enterprise ARR doubling quarter-over-quarter. The user base has increased to at least 350 enterprise customers and “hundreds of thousands” of daily active users. 

  • Windsurf’s team will continue to work on its AI-powered IDE, while Cognition continues to work on Devin. Eventually Cognition will integrate Winsurf’s IP and capabilities into its own products.

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

  • AI vibe coding startup Lovable has officially become a unicorn, after a $200M Series A at a $1.8B valuation. 

  • Founded by ex-Waymo engineers, Bedrock Robotics has raised $80M to automate construction.

  • Scale AI laid off 14% of its staff, around 200 employees.

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.