Gold:BTC, Powell's Politics, and Google's Monopoly!

Gold has now actually outperformed stocks over the last 20 years (dividends included). And to think everyone has told me to fade the boomers my whole life.

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin had a decent recovery this week, albeit on the back of drab, low volume from the ETF complex. Strategy acquiring another $285M was one of the drivers of the bid. They now hold 531,644 BTC acquired at an average price of $67,556.

After consolidating around $85,000 after a low of $75k last week, Bitcoin also made ATHs vs the Mag7. If you missed last weeks edition, I’d strongly recommend you take a quick read for an explainer around Tarriff’s - for us the key indicies to watch in the coming weeks and months will predominantly be the 10Y, and the downstream interplay between Bitcoin and Gold.

• An outside scenario to watch for is the 10Y pushing 5%, the Fed continuing to be unresponsive, forcing the Treasury to dig into their toolkit. Luke Gromen has been floating the possibility of the Treasury remarking it’s Gold price to unlock liquidity in the TGA. TLDR; this would be unfathomably bullish Gold, and therefore probably Bitcoin (see Joe Consorti tweet below).

Gold has obviously been the standout performer pushing ATHs >$3200/oz in the recent weeks as a classic flight to safety, historically, Bitcoin has followed.

In sum, the vulnerability and extremely delicate nature of US financial markets, in particular the bond market, leave open the strong possibility for continued expansionary monetary policy in one form or another. This is the scenario that results in Gold and Bitcoin up big.

Other things to note this week:

• A great pod here from Galaxy on the state of the crypto lending market

• Two others worth watching if you want more macro insights are Lyn Alden on Nat Brunell and Luke Gromen, also on Nat Brunell.

• Semler Scientific plan to buy $500M in BTC

• A classic Fed Pivot from Jpow as he vows to relax bank regulation for crypto.

This Week in TradFi

For once we’ve got a little bit of drama for you in the TradFi section.

• On Thursday, President Trump accused Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell of “playing politics” by not cutting interest rates, saying he looked forward to the day Powell was gone.

• "The Fed really owes it to the American people to get interest rates down. That's the only thing he's good for," Trump said. "I am not happy with him. If I want him out of there he'll be out real fast believe me."

• Powell has been downplaying the likelihood of interest rate cuts anytime soon, talking about how the Trump administration’s tariff plans are likely to raise inflation and unemployment. Powell has said that rate cuts will only happen when the direction of the economy is clearer. 

• Legally, it’s unclear if Trump has the ability to remove Powell, who is appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. Trump has tried to remove members of other independent agencies, which is currently under review by the Supreme Court. 

• We’ll keep an eye on the feud, but one thing we can tell you: we probably won’t see another round of rate cuts in the U.S. anytime soon.

On the other hand, policymakers outside of the U.S. are more likely to cut interest rates as a result of Trump’s tariffs. 

• The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the seventh time this year on Thursday, attempting to help boost the euro zone economy that will likely take a hit following U.S. tariffs.

• China, however, is expected to leave lending rates steady, though markets expect stimulus to be rolled out as a result of the growing China-U.S. trade war. 

  • China’s fiscal revenue decline slowed in Q1 of this year as the country shores up its economy ahead of U.S. tariff implementation. 

  • China has set a budget deficit target at 4% of GDP this year, its highest yet, to help hit its growth target of around 5%.

• Traders continue to forecast a 50bps reserve requirement ratio cut and a 15bps rate cut in Q2.

This Week in Tech

A federal judge has found that Google violated antitrust laws by “willfully acquiring and maintaining monopoly power” in the advertising technology market. 

• This comes two years after the U.S. and eight states initially sued the company to “halt Google’s anticompetitive scheme, unwind Google’s monopolistic grip on the market, and restore competition to digital advertising.”

• The Judge decided that Google had violated the Sherman Act by monopolizing and unlawfully tying DFP and AdX together, and that Google is guilty of abuse of monopoly power in the publisher-side of their advertising technology stack.

• The court will set a schedule and hearing date to determine remedies for the antitrust violations at a later date, which could include forcing Google to break up its advertising business or impose restrictions to ensure fair competition. 

• In a totally separate antitrust case, a different federal judge found that Google had illegally monopolized the general internet search market. Remedies for that case are likely to be decided in mid-2025. 

• Rough time to be Google’s in-house counsel. 

And another installment of the Rippling-Deel drama for you:

• Quick recap: Rippling employee Keith O’Brien claimed that Deel paid him $6,000/month to spy on Rippling. 

• O’Brien alleges that the first $6,000 payment was sent to his Revolut account by the wife of Deel’s COO in November 2024.

• So now Rippling is suing Revolut to get the full name and address of the sender of that initial $6,000. Rippling is also seeking all account opening documentation, including ID, to definitively confirm that it was indeed the wife of Deel COO. 

Internet forum 4chan was hacked on Tuesday, and since then, the website has been fully down.

• Several screenshots of 4chan’s back-end code were circulated online, which featured code that should otherwise only be accessible to the site’s moderators.

• Screenshots of 4chan’s administrator and moderator usernames, with associated email addresses, were also leaked, though no news sources have yet confirmed that the data is legitimate. 

And the internet only continues to get weirder - multiple sources are reporting that OpenAI is working on its own social network, similar to Twitter (does anyone actually call it X? Let us know if you do). 

• The project is still in early stages, though it’s been reported that the prototype focuses on ChatGPT’s image generation that has a social feed. 

• Entering the social media market continues Altman’s feud with Musk, and also brings him into Meta territory. 

• When it had first been reported that Meta was planning on building a rival to the ChatGPT app, Altman had tweeted “ok fine maybe we’ll do a social app”, so I guess he’s just holding up to that promise.

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

• Deck, a startup that is building “Plaid for the rest of the internet” has raised a $12M Series A, led by Infinity Ventures. 

• Data wrangler startup Hammerspace has raised $100M at a $500M valuation. 

• Chapter, a Medicare advisory startup, has closed a $75M round at a valuation of $1.5B.

Arch is building next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto. We also offer access to bank-grade custody, trading and staking services, powered by BitGo.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.