$1.5BN BTC flows, U.S. resilience, and tech earnings!

Look at the flows! Read it and weep, bears.

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin posted a strong +7% candle thus far this week. The market’s confidence is increasing with Trump’s polling looking increasingly strong in battleground states, the Dow posting record highs, and the ETFs seeing superb inflows.

Monday saw the largest daily inflow since June at a massive $555.9M, this week is totaling north of $1.5B in net buy volume with a day’s trading still to go.

• Given these flows, it’s somewhat surprising to see Bitcoin not surge through $68,000, but market participants are still facing a large degree of uncertainty with the US election less than 3 weeks away.

• Despite Vice President Harris offering increased support for a crypto “regulatory framework”, specific details leave something to be desired for investors.

• Given former President Trump’s repeated and explicit support for the industry, we can attribute positive price moves to result from an increased likelihood of a second Trump term. Polymarket now has Trump topping a 20 point lead.

Crypto equities also had a great week with public miners ($MARA +12.0%), $COIN (15.77%), and $MSTR hitting a new ATH, though correcting sharply since.

On the Arch from, a couple of announcements are in order. Firstly, Arch is delighted to support Praxis in their quest to build the next great city-state. All Praxians will be eligible for discounted loan terms and access to exclusive Arch products!

We’re also in Santa Monica attending Bitcoin First - so please anyone in the area do reach out to us!

And finally, a few headlines that caught our eye this week:

• Morgan Stanley discloses over $272M invested in Bitcoin ETFs. Pocket change for one of the worlds largest Banks.

• Tesla moves Bitcoin worth over $225M for the first time in 2 years. Don’t dump on us Elon. Please?

• Blockstream raises $210M a convertible note financing round. Funds will be used toward their Bitcoin treasury, funding their layer-2 solutions and growing their mining operations.

This Week in TradFi

The U.S. continues to report news pointing to a resilient economy: 

• Retail sales increased 0.4% in September, higher than the expected 0.1%. 

• Unemployment claims totaled 241,000, 19,000 lower than the Labor Department estimate. 

• A combination of the strong economic data and the recent Fed rate cut has brought the Dow and S&P 500 to record-highs, with the Nasdaq rising 6.53 points and the Dow rising 161.35 points. 

• All signs continue to point to another 25bp rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting.

On the international front:

• The European Central Bank cut interest rates once again, indicating inflation is steadying while economic growth has weakened. The Chief Eurozone Economist has said that another rate cut is likely in December, followed by cuts through June of next year. 

• The UK may also see rate cuts soon, with inflation and price gauges falling last month. Investors see a 90% chance of two rate cuts by the end of the year.

This Week in Tech

Not a ton to report in tech this week, but you know you can always count on earnings season to bring in the good news: 

• Netflix’s top and bottom lines beat expectations, with the company’s ad-tier memberships increasing 35% QoQ. This tier represented more than 50% of its signups in Q3. Investors felt optimistic following the news, with shares rising 5% in aftermarket trading. 

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world’s biggest producer of advanced chips, jumped 10% during trading yesterday after the company reported a whopping 54% increase in net profit. As a result, Nvidia, Micron, and AMD shares also all increased yesterday.

• Right now, experts estimate 4.4% earnings growth for S&P 500 companies. But, for what it’s worth, almost 80% of S&P 500 companies beat Wall Street estimates by an average of 5.5% - clearly Wall Street could stand to update their methodology. 

Though there’s been talk of an AI bubble recently, the TSMC share numbers show that the AI revolution continues to grow. 

• Some experts estimate AI spending will reach $150B by 2027, and total spending will hit $632B by 2028, 

• Advanced Micro Devices told investors that the market for advanced chips could reach $500B in 3 years, up 25% from its previous forecast. 

• Nvidia shares were up almost 4% in trading yesterday, holding steady after recently hitting a record-high. 

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

• Amplitude has acquired Command AI, an app user engagement startup, for more than $45M. 

• Meta let go of two dozen staffers for using their $25 meal credits to purchase household items. 

• Permira has acquired Squarespace at $46.50/share, a valuation of a little over $7B.

Arch is building next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto. We also offer access to bank-grade custody, trading and staking services, powered by BitGo.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.