Satoshi's Identity, U.K growth, and Elon's Cybercab

A cracking edition this week If I say so myself..

This Week in Crypto

Starting as per with looking at the latest BTC ETF flows we can see that barring Monday, flows were quite weak. Still, we are on track for another week of a net nine-figure inflow.

Long-time readers will know that we’ve consistently advocated for the ETFs to serve as a conduit for structural inflows in perpetuity; the latest surveys show no sign of this trend letting up. Indeed, we’ve yet to see any real FOMO from institutional investors this cycle.

Elsewhere in the market, MSTR has been a strong equity performer this week printing +13% and gunning for a new ATH. Saylor this week articulated his endgame for Microstrategy.

Let’s rattle through the other news, there’s a good amount to cover.

• Mt. Gox has postponed its distribution deadline once again, this time to October 31, 2025. While this delay may ease short-term concerns about an excess supply hitting the market, there remains a potential for increased volatility once these on-chain funds start moving. According to Arkham Intelligence, Mt. Gox still holds 45K BTC (valued at $2.7 billion) after distributing 97K BTC ($5.8 billion) across July and August 2024. Chump change.

• The HBO documentary on Satoshi flopped as it’s claim Peter Todd to be Satoshi Nakamoto was met with widespread amusement. Spoiler alert, Peter Todd is almost certaintly infact not, Satoshi Nakamoto.

• The U.S. Supreme Court has declined to hear a case involving 69,370 Bitcoin seized from the Silk Road marketplace, clearing the way for the government to sell the $4.4 billion worth of Bitcoin. The case originated from a dispute over ownership, with Battle Born Investments claiming rights through bankruptcy proceedings but losing in lower courts. Now that the legal battle has ended, the U.S. government may proceed with auctioning the Bitcoin.

• The SEC had a remarkably busy week.

  • They filed fraud charges against three crypto market makers and nine individuals, accusing them of promoting tokens by artificially inflating trading activity through "wash trading".

    • One of the tokens under scrutiny was actually created by the FBI to catch suspect market makers.

  • They got sued by crypto.com after serving them a wells notice.

  • They sued Cumberland for operating as an unregistered dealer in crypto markets.

• Uniswap, the leading decentralized exchange on Ethereum, announced its new project, Unichain. A layer-2 solution developed using Optimism’s OP Stack as part of the broader Superchain initiative. While Unichain is still in the testnet phase, its mainnet launch is anticipated in Q4 2024.

• Ryan Salame, former FTX Digital markets CEO went on Tucker Carlson’s podcast. There were a number of noteworthy clips; including anecdotes of $50M condos, SBF family involvement and SBF’s autism. Happy listening folks.

This Week in TradFi

Wall Street closed slightly lower than expected yesterday after higher inflation and unemployment claims were reported.

• The Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.4% on an annual basis in September, both of which were higher than expected.

• The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3% YoY, vs. 3.2% expected.

• Separately, jobless claims released yesterday increased to 258,000, vs. an estimated 230,000. 

• This data paints two opposing pictures - higher inflation points towards an economy running too hot, while higher unemployment points to a weaker economy. 

• Traders are still expecting a 25bp rate cut in November, putting the probability at 80%. 

The U.S. is also kicking off Q3 earnings season -

• Tesla dropped more than 6% in premarket trading after the release of its robotaxi.

• JPMorgan Chase rose 1.9% after releasing its Q3 results, and Wells Fargo rose 3.9%. 

• Despite shaky data on the macro side, Wall Street indexes are on track to hit their fifth consecutive week of gains.

On the international front -

• France released its 2025 budget proposal, which outlines plans for $66B of spending cuts and tax increases, in an attempt to decrease its deficit. The government hopes to bring its budget deficit down from 6.1% to 5%, though markets expect it to come down to a more modest 5.4%.

• The UK is back! (Sort of). The country’s economy grew 0.2% in August after two consecutive months of stagnation. This was fueled by growth in all major sectors, with particularly high rebound in manufacturing and construction. 

• On the other hand, India’s industrial output contracted for the first time in almost two years, with weaker mining activity and electricity generation. Industrial output was down 0.1% YoY in August, much worse than the expected 1.2% growth. 

This Week in Tech

Last night Elon Musk showcased Tesla’s long-awaited robotaxi, with no steering wheel or pedals. 

• The Cybercab will be produced from 2026 and priced somewhere under $30,000. 

• He also introduced the robovan, which can carry up to 20 people, but no other details were really given. 

• Musk did not speak to how quickly Tesla could ramp up robotaxi production, clear regulatory hurdles, or how it would surpass Google’s already released Waymo vehicles. 

• Investors remained wary, with many questioning how Tesla would actually implement the idealistic tales Musk spun about the vehicles.

• Response this morning mirrored that sentiment, with stock down 6%+ in premarket trading.

The U.S. Justice Department has put up a massive proposal to force Google to sell off parts of its business.

• This comes after Judge Metha ruled against Google in an antitrust case last August, saying that Google had a monopoly in search and search advertising.

• If successful, this would be the first major corporate breakup in four decades. 

• The DOJ has asked for changes in four areas: search distribution, data access and usage, extending search monopoly, and advertising practices. 

• Google responded on Tuesday, calling the proposal “radical and sweeping” and warning that the proposal would hinder innovation and harm consumers. 

• Regardless, this case is far from over, and it’ll be at least a couple years before we know for sure if the DOJ will be successful in breaking Google up. 

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

• Stripe is rumored to have acquired Bridge, a crypto/fiat conversion solution, for $900M. 

• Fullscript acquired Rupa Health, a company that helps practitioners order, track, and manage lab tests, for an undisclosed amount. 

FTX’s bankruptcy reorganization plan has been approved, which involves paying out more than $14B to customers of the exchange. John Ray, current CEO, said the company is “poised to return 100% of bankruptcy claim amounts plus interest for non-governmental creditors”.

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto. We also offer access to bank-grade custody, trading and staking services, powered by BitGo.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.