BTC ETF Inflows, June Jobs, & Fable's Back

Tough loss for the U.S. yesterday! Not sure what we’re supposed to spend the rest of the month doing now…

This Week at Arch

Introducing a new section - this week at Arch! We’re introducing new products even faster than we can keep up, and we want to make sure you know all of the different offerings available to you (and we’ll remind you of some old ones along the way!).

Most crypto lenders want a payment from you every month. Arch just made that optional.

With a deferred interest loan, nothing is due during the term. Interest still accrues monthly against your principal, but you are not billed for it along the way. When you hit maturity you have two ways to settle up: pay the accrued interest in one final statement, or roll it straight into the principal of your next Arch loan with a single click.

Let’s talk a little more about that second option. If your Bitcoin keeps appreciating, you can keep borrowing against it and roll your interest forward instead of paying out of pocket, so your cash never has to leave your hands to service the loan.

To put it succinctly:

• No monthly payments. Put your Bitcoin to work today without committing to monthly cash outflows.

• Roll it forward. Carry accrued interest into your next loan in one click, or settle it at maturity. Your call.

• Prepay anytime, no penalty. Close early whenever you want and it costs you nothing.

• Same protections as every Arch loan. LTV monitoring, margin call notices, and the ability to top up collateral at any time all still apply.

• Your Bitcoin stays yours. Held in segregated custody at Anchorage Digital, a federally chartered bank, never lent out or rehypothecated.

You are borrowing against your stack, not selling it, so you keep your upside and skip the capital gains hit. With rates now starting at 7.25% APR, it is the most flexible borrowing we have offered yet.

See how it works →

This Week in Crypto

Another tough week for Bitcoin (getting tired of saying this!):

• BTC dropped to a 21-month low near $58K but hopped back up to the low $60s.

• The rally arrived alongside $221.7M in spot ETF inflows, finally snapping a ten-day outflow streak.

• Sentiment is still sitting in the Extreme Fear territory.

Michael Saylor’s company had to walk back its own on-chain rumor mill this week, confirming it had actually sold 3,588 BTC over the past week.

• Strategy sold in order to cover dividend obligations on its preferred stock.

A new nonprofit called Ethereum Institutional launched July 1 with backing from Joe Lubin, boasting relationships spanning Tier 1 banks and sovereign institutions representing something like $250 trillion in combined AUM.

• Not to be outdone, Vitalik Buterin previewed what he's calling Ethereum's "biggest rebuild" since the Merge, reportedly touching nearly every major part of the protocol.

On the regulatory front:

• The CLARITY Act’s July 4th deadline came and went, and Polymarket’s odds of passage have now dropped to 42%.

• The Senate has adjourned and won’t return until July 13, leaving under a month of floor time before August recess.

This Week in TradFi

The June jobs report came in at just 57,000 new jobs against a 115,000 estimate.

• This brought the September rate-hike odds from around 63% to 51%, which the market interpreted as unambiguously bullish.

• The Dow responded by ripping 594 points to a record close above 52,900.

SpaceX joins the big leagues:

• SpaceX officially joins the Nasdaq-100 today, the first company to do so under new "fast-track" rules built specifically to accommodate mega-IPOs.

• Estimates put forced passive buying from index funds at $4.3–10 billion into a float that's only 3-5% publicly tradeable.

Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citi, and Bank of America all report this week, and the bar has been set uncomfortably high after a Q2 that Barron’s called the best quarter for the S&P 500 since 2020 and the best first half since 2021.

• The setup, as one strategist put it, is that results are likely to be robust in absolute terms, but expectations are now bullish enough that "robust" may not be good enough.

This Week in Tech

The AI labs continued their preferred sport of announcing things that are almost, but not quite, real.

• Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro missed its second consecutive self-imposed deadline this week, after already blowing through a June I/O promise and a June 30 GA target.

• Not that the spec sheet is unimpressive! It's reportedly shipping with a 2-million-token context window, the largest of any production frontier model.

On the money side, the AI industry keeps finding new ways to monetize proximity to the government.

• Sam Altman has floated giving the US government roughly 5% of OpenAI's equity, styled after the Alaska Permanent Fund - a fairly extraordinary tell about how existential OpenAI views its Washington relationship.

• Meanwhile, Anthropic has overtaken OpenAI on self-reported revenue, $47B annualized run-rate vs. OpenAI’s $25B-$33B.

Infrastructure is the main bottleneck:

• Google's data centers drove a record 37% jump in electricity use.

• And that's before accounting for the fact that more than 75 U.S. data-center projects worth $130B were blocked or delayed in Q1 alone, due to grassroots opposition to their energy and environmental footprint.

And Fable’s back, sort of:

• The Commerce Department lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos on July 1st, after Anthropic implemented new safeguards to reduce jailbreak risks and shore up cooperation with the government.

• Access was restored after an 18-day blackout that started when the model was pulled over security concerns.

• The comeback tour was short-lived on the "free" front, though: as of today, July 7, Fable 5 access through Pro, Max, Team, and select Enterprise plans requires usage credits rather than being folded into weekly limits.

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.