BTC ETF Flows, PCE Report, & Tokenminimizing

U.S. World Cup loss, Bitcoin still down… it can only go up from here right? Right?

This Week in Crypto

Another tough week for crypto unfortunately.

• Bitcoin, ether, XRP, and Solana are on track to post a third consecutive quarterly loss.

• Bitcoin touched its lowest level since September 2024 this week, bouncing from $58K to around $59,770 after a rough stretch.

• Spot bitcoin ETFs shed $696 million on Thursday alone, extending a six-day consecutive outflow streak.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged back-to-back record outflow streaks in May and June, flipping year-to-date flows negative.

• IBIT absorbed the heaviest blow, with BlackRock's net outflows estimated at roughly $3.3 billion during the extended streak.

• There is some good news - institutions and Strategy are still net accumulators to the tune of $150 billion in buying since launch, and ETF outflows are "pretty tiny" in that context.

Some regulatory shuffle:

• As of this week, only 210 out of 3,000 crypto firms had cleared MiCA compliance deadlines. After July 1, all unlicensed platforms lose access to 450 million EU users with no extensions.

• Binance withdrew its MiCA license application in Greece and will seek authorization in another EU member state.

This Week in TradFi

The S&P 500 is sitting around 7,365 and the Nasdaq at 25,386 as of Friday, with the VIX ticking up.

• The Nasdaq logged its first four-day losing streak since February, even as the Dow touched a new intraday all-time high - the divergence reflecting a rotation out of mega-cap tech into healthcare, financials, and industrials.

Thursday's PCE report showed headline inflation running at 4.1% annualized, the highest since April 2023, while core PCE came in at 3.4%, the hottest reading since October 2023.

• Fed officials generally look through energy-driven spikes, but concerns are rising that price increases are becoming more widespread and that tariff pass-through is feeding into stickier categories.

• Bank of America now expected three quarter-point Fed rate hikes in 2026, penciling in September, October, and December.

Gold futures fell below $4,000/oz for the first time in seven months, deepening a broader selloff from the year’s highs.

• The geopolitical risk premium that drove gold's extraordinary run this year is fading as the US-Iran diplomatic process grinds forward (slowly).

This Week in Tech

SpaceX plunged 16.4% on Monday, its steepest single-day decline and its third consecutive day of selling after a strong post-IPO run.

• The trigger - reports that the company is looking to raise roughly $20 billion in debt.

• The stock has continued declining through the week, but is still trading above its $135 IPO price.

Stocks dipped in premarket trading Thursday after reports that OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO until 2027.

• The report rattled the Nasdaq briefly before the market stabilized on Micron's earnings.

• Whether OpenAI actually delays is an open question, but now we know just the suggestion of it can move markets!

Looks like the tokenmaxxing era might be over:

• Earlier this year, companies encouraged employees to use as much AI as humanly possible. Meta's top user burned 281 billion tokens in a single month. Uber exhausted its entire 2026 AI budget by April.

• The most AI-obsessed firms are now spending $7,500 per employee per month, and agentic tools that call a model repeatedly have tripled enterprise AI bills even as per-token prices collapsed.

• We’re now seeing tokenminimizing - Microsoft canceled Claude Code subscriptions for employees in several key product divisions, Meta took down the informal tokenmaxxing leaderboard, and Uber now caps employees at $1,500 a month per tool.

Apple dropped 6% on Thursday - leading the Nasdaq lower - after announcing price increases on MacBook and iPad.

• The increases follow a pattern across hardware companies adjusting to tariff pass-through costs.

• Microsoft fell 3% on the same day after raising Xbox console prices by $100–$150.

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.