Iran Price Action, May CPI, & SpaceX IPO

View from the Arch #136

June 12, 2026

Another tough week in the markets, but hopefully this Knicks run is keeping your spirits up!

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin spent most of the week in risk-off mode, falling to levels last seen in 2024.

  • BTC briefly touched below $60,000, before recovering above $63,000 on Friday.

  • The catalyst for the bounce was that Trump announced he’d canceled planned Iran strikes and that a peace deal could be signed as early as this weekend, sending BTC up 3% Thursday.

Bitcoin ETFs shed $4.4B across 13 straight sessions of net outflows, the worst streak since 2024.

  • The theory circulating on Wall Street is that institutional money may be rotating into anticipated IPOs like SpaceX.

On the regulatory side, the House Ways and Means Committee held a full hearing on June 9 on a package of seven draft bills that could reshape how crypto investors, miners, stakers, and users interact with the tax code.

  • The proposals cover staking income timing, wash-sale rule extensions, stablecoin treatment, and a small-transaction exemption that would finally mean buying coffee with Bitcoin doesn't generate a reportable tax event.

This Week in TradFi

U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Thursday after Trump canceled planned Iran strikes.

  • The S&P 500 rose 1.75%, the Nasdaq rose 2.54%, and the Dow climbed 930 points.

  • That single session did a lot of heavy lifting for a week that otherwise looked grim.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released May CPI this week: prices rose 4.2% YoY, up from 3.8% in April.

  • Energy did most of the damage - gas alone is up 40% from a year ago.

  • PPI came in at 6% YoY, the highest since December 2022.

Private payrolls have hit their highest three-month average gain in over three years, with the U.S. economy adding more than half a million jobs through the first five months of 2026 - nearly double what it managed in all of 2025.

  • The labor market is, by most measures, running hot. This is good if you're employed and less good if you were counting on rate cuts.

  • Wage growth has continued to slow despite the payroll acceleration, which is the one element keeping the Fed's options even nominally open.

This Week in Tech

SpaceX goes public today!

  • SpaceX begins trading on the Nasdaq today under the ticker SPCX, priced at $135 per share, valuing the company at roughly $1.77T.

  • The base offering raises approximately $75B, which would make it the largest IPO in stock market history.

  • Musk will retain over 82% voting control after the offering.

And in other IPO news, OpenAI confirmed it has confidentially filed a draft S-1 with the SEC, targeting a debut as soon as September 2026 at a valuation of $730B to $850B.

  • This comes just days after Anthropic filed its own S-1 on June 1 at a $965B valuation.

Apple held its annual Worldwide Developers Conference on Monday, aiming for what Bloomberg called "redemption" after its first AI rollout two years ago was plagued by subpar technology and delayed features.

  • The centerpiece was Siri AI, a new version of Siri described as "profoundly more intelligent, knowledgeable, and capable."

  • Markets were not incredibly impressed - the event delivered roughly what investors had already priced in.

Another perfect quarter for Broadcom, but unfortunately markets aren’t having it.

  • Broadcom reported fiscal Q2 2026 revenue of $22.2B, up 48% YoY, driven by a record $10.8B in AI semiconductor sales that grew 143% annually.

  • And… the stock dropped 13%.

  • The selloff came because the Q3 AI chip revenue forecast of $16B - while representing over 200% YoY growth - came in below analyst expectations of $17.2B.

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

  • Endurance Energy has raised a $54M Series A to harness terawatts of geothermal energy deep in the ocean.

  • Jedify has raised $24M to help companies arm AI agents with context on their business.

  • Sandstone has raised a $30M Series A to bring AI to in-house legal teams.

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.