BTC Steady, Tech Earnings, & OpenAI Falters

View from the Arch #130

May 01, 2026

April showers bring May flowers green candles?

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin is sooo close to locking it in with the $80,000 mark but it’s just not able to commit.

  • We closed out April with Bitcoin up about 13% on the month, but just refusing to close above $80,000. 

  • Derivatives activity has cooled, with funding rates and options data pointing to cautious positioning.

  • Prediction markets show that traders are counting on relatively table prices heading into May. Klashi prices a 64% probability that BTC holds above $76K and only 37% odds on reclaiming $77K.

Speaking of prediction markets, Gemini is entering the prediction market wars.

  • Gemini secured a Derivatives Clearing Organization license from the CFTC, allowing it to operate its own regulated clearinghouse and clear regulated derivatives trades through its own infrastructure. 

  • Robinhood also entered prediction markets through Kalshi, while Coinbase launched a similar integration in January.

This Week in TradFi

The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate at 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday in what was Jerome Powell’s final press conference as chair, since his term ends May 15.

  • Four FOMC members voted against the statement, not because they wanted to cut, but because they wanted to remove the easing bias entirely - signaling they are not interested in cutting rates at all. 

  • The macro data: Q1 GDP bounced back and PCE came in roughly in line. 

Four Magnificent Seven companies reported Wednesday night, and the market rendered a split verdict.

  • Alphabet climbed on solid sales, Meta dropped 9% after raising its full-year capex guidance, and Microsoft fell on similar concerns as the company said spending would reach $190B due to high memory costs.

  • Apple reported last night and was up 3% in pre-market Friday. 

  • One theme cemented this week: markets are rewarding AI spending that shows near-term monetization and punishing spending without clear incremental returns.

And the S&P had its best month in five years!

  • The S&P 500 sealed April with around 10% gains - its best month in five years - with the index and the Nasdaq both hitting new all-time highs on Thursday.

This Week in Tech

This week’s most discussed story is that OpenAI is spending $250B and growing slower than expected.

  • The Wall Street Journal reported that OpenAI missed multiple monthly revenue targets in early 2026 after losing ground to Anthropic in coding and enterprise markets, and fell short of its internal goal to reach 1 billion weekly active users for ChatGPT by year-end.

  • The report also noted that CFO Sarah Friar has privately warned colleagues the company may struggle to fund its compute commitments if growth doesn't accelerate - a pretty awkward concern to surface right before a planned $850B IPO!

  • Oracle dropped 5%, CoreWeave fell over 5%, and Nvidia and AMD each declined around 4% on the news.

Apple had a great quarter and the new CEO showed face!

  • Apple reported Thursday and did numbers: revenue jumped 17% and iPhone sales increased 22% from a year earlier.

  • New CEO (as of September 1) John Ternus made his Wall Street debut on the call and immediately deployed the Apple marketing playbook, teasing "an incredible roadmap" of products while declining to discuss any of the details.

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.