Bitcoin ETFs Movement, Software Slump, & Anthropic Plugins

View from the Arch #121

February 13, 2026

Happy (almost) Valentine’s Day! Hopefully we’ll see more green than red this weekend, though…

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin’s still fairly volatile, probably giving some of you long-term holders flashbacks to spring 2025.

  • BTC spent this week testing everyone's conviction hovering in the $66K-$70K range.

  • The four-year halving cycle truthers are out in full force, but no one’s sure if we’ve hit the bottom already or if we’re going lower. 

  • The real story is that ETF flows have completely reversed. 

    • U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have gone net negative this year after buying 46,000 BTC in early 2025.

Meanwhile, MicroStrategy recently added another 1,142 BTC at around $78,815 per coin, bringing their total hoard to 714,644 BTC acquired at an average of $76,056.

  • They're now down on their average cost basis, which is either conviction or stubbornness depending on whether you're a bull or a bear (but obviously we’re all bulls here, right?).

Some other interesting news: MetaMask teamed up with Ondo Finance to let you buy tokenized stocks directly in your wallet.

  • Over 200 tokenized securities are now available to non-US users (because of course the U.S. gets left out - the regulatory work never sleeps).

  • You can trade 24/5 during market hours and transfer tokens 24/7, which means you can finally panic-sell your tokenized NVIDIA shares at 3am just like you do with your altcoins.

This Week in TradFi

The stock market had the kind of week that makes you understand why your parents told you investing was boring.

  • The S&P 500 is headed for a weekly loss despite getting a decent inflation print on Friday - CPI came in at 2.4% YoY vs. the expected 2.5%.

  • Software stocks are having a full-blown identity crisis because everyone suddenly remembered that AI might disrupt software companies, not just help them.

    • Microsoft is down YTD on fears that AI will cannibalize Office, which is a little funny since Microsoft does own the AI doing the cannibalizing.

  • The Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time ever on February 6th, and the celebration lasted approximately 3 seconds before everyone went back to worrying about software.

  • Earnings were overall fine! Most companies beat estimates - nothing incredibly interesting to say here.

  • And January jobs came in at 130,000 versus expectations of 55,000, which briefly made everyone optimistic about the economy.

    • Markets are now pricing in about 63 basis points of Fed cuts in 2026, or roughly 50/50 odds on a third cut by December.

This Week in Tech

Anthropic broke the internet yet again this week -

  • The catalyst this week was Anthropic releasing legal plugins for Claude Cowork, which caused legal software and data companies to crater.

  • Thomson Reuters dropped 16% in a single day, LexisNexis parent company RELX fell 13%, and LegalZoom dropped 15%.

  • But the panic spread way beyond legal tech. 

    • The iShares Tech-Software ETF is now down 30% from its highs and officially in bear market territory. Monday.com dropped 21% despite beating earnings. ServiceNow is down 28% year-to-date, and Intuit is off 34%.

  • The core problem is that the SaaS business model is built on charging per seat. But if one AI agent can do the work of ten humans, why would anyone pay for ten seats?

    • Companies are scrambling to figure out outcome-based pricing or usage-based models, but the transition period is ugly.

While software burns, AI infrastructure keeps printing money.

  • Microsoft is exploring high-temperature superconducting power cables for data centers because the AI race is increasingly a power-and-grid race.

  • Cisco unveiled a new AI networking chip to compete with Nvidia and Broadcom.

  • And Applied Materials crushed earnings on continued AI semiconductor demand.

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.