BTC is Back, December Jobs Report, & CES 2026

View from the Arch #116

January 09, 2026

Don’t want to jinx it, but we’re so back -

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin kicked off 2026 with promising momentum - but spent the latter half of the week giving back some of its early gains.

  • The first trading days of January finally delivered what we’ve all been hoping for. Bitcoin surged from the high $80Ks to briefly touch $94,700 on Monday, fueled by tax-loss selling ending and capital rotating back in, renewed geopolitical tensions creating haven demand, and a brief surge in ETF inflows. 

  • By Thursday, though, BTC had pulled back to around $90,800, down around 1% over 24 hours. It’s currently trading near $91K as of this morning, roughly 3% below its seven-day high.

The real story is in the flows, though.

  • After Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.17B in inflows during the first few days of January, the tide turned. Between January 6-8, Bitcoin ETFs dropped $1.13B in outflows.

  • Ethereum ETFs fared even worse, bleeding about $258M since January 7. 

  • Interestingly, altcoin ETFs bucked the trend. XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin ETFs collectively recorded $101.7M in inflows from January 2-8 - suggesting retail rotation into speculative positions.

This week also brought some positive regulatory developments: 

  • SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw’s departure could potentially pave the way for more crypto-friendly policies, which helped drive XRP’s early-week surge. 

    • XRP jumped 8% on January 3, reclaiming $2 for the first time since mid-December. 

  • The SEC has outlined plans for a "token taxonomy" establishing digital commodities, network tokens, digital collectibles, and digital tools as non-securities. An "innovation exemption" is expected by early 2026, allowing crypto firms to launch tokens and products faster without full SEC registration.

This Week in TradFi

Markets kicked off 2026 with a bang, setting multiple all-time highs early in the week.

  • The S&P 500 and Dow both notched fresh records, with the S&P 500 hitting 6,944.82 (its first all-time high of 2026) and the Dow hitting 49,462.08. 

  • The defining story of the week was sector rotation. After years of megacap tech dominance, money is flowing aggressively into cyclicals and small-caps.

    • Small-caps: The Russell 2000 has dramatically outperformed to start 2026, up over 3% in the first three days of trading. The index is hitting consecutive intraday records as investors bet on domestic-focused smaller companies benefiting from looser monetary policy and a weaker dollar. 

    • Defense: Defense stocks exploded Thursday after President Trump called for a $1.5T defense budget in 2027 - a 66% increase from 2026. 

    • Autos: Ford and GM hit new 52-week highs on Thursday, surging 5% and 3% respectively, after the Treasury Secretary announced implementation of the “no tax on American car loan interest” policy. 

  • Friday’s December Jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls increasing by just 50,000, lower than the 73,000 estimate, while the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.4%.

    • Markets initially interpreted the softer-than-expected headline as a sign the Fed might maintain its easing bias, though bond yields remained under pressure throughout the week.

  • Silver broke through $80/oz for the first time, extending 2025’s 140%+ rally. Gold pushed toward $4,500/oz, gaining a little over 1%. 

This Week in Tech

The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) consumed the tech world this week. 

  • The overarching theme is that AI is moving from the cloud into the physical world - robots, autonomous vehicles, household appliances, and more. 

  • Jensen Huang gave Nvidia’s keynote on Monday night, coining “Physical AI” as the year’s buzzword. 

    • Huang unveiled Cosmos, an AI foundation model capable of simulating environments governed by actual physics, and announced that Nvidia's next-generation superchip platform, Vera Rubin, is in full production.

  • Humanoid robots dominated the show floor, with Boston Dynamics, LG, Agibot, and Segway all showing off new robots. 

  • Uber, Lucid Motors, and Nuro unveiled a luxury robotaxi, while Ford announced plans to push into Level 3 autonomy (where drivers can take their eyes off the road during specific scenarios). 

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

  • OpenAI is acquiring the team behind Convogo, a business software platform that helps executive coaches, consultants, talent leaders, and HR teams. 

  • Anthropic is reportedly raising $10B at a $350B valuation. 

  • Shopify competitor Swap has raised $100M, six months after its $40M Series B. 

  • LMArena, known for its AI model performance leaderboards, has raised a $150M Series A at a valuation of $1.7B. 

  • Meta is acquiring Manus, an AI startup that became the talk of the town after a demo video showing an AI agent doing tasks like screening job candidates, planning vacations, and analyzing stock portfolios. 

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.