Japan Rate Hike, November Jobs Report, & OpenAI Deals

View from the Arch #113

December 19, 2025

There would be no better Christmas gift next week than a BTC pump 🙏 Santa if you’re reading…

This Week in Crypto

Bitcoin had a wild ride this week, getting battered early in the week and then staging a rally following the Bank of Japan’s rate hike:

  • BTC fell to $85,200 Monday morning as the broader crypto selloff continued, wiping out $136B in market cap and triggering $381M in liquidations. Bitcoin was down more than 4% for the week at one point, trading around $85,800-$86,500 for most of the week.

  • Ethereum dropped 6-8%, falling below $2,800 at points, while XRP slipped below that ever-important $2 level to around $1.90. Total crypto market cap fell to $2.93T.

  • Then came the BOJ surprise on Thursday (more on that below!). 

    • The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25bps to 0.75%. Historically, every BOJ rate hike has coincided with 20-31% Bitcoin crashes. But for some reason, this time Bitcoin rallied.

    • BTC jumped from $85,200 to $88,000 in just five hours following the hike. As of this morning, Bitcoin was holding around $87,000-$88,000.

    • Perhaps the different reaction is due to the hike already having been priced in, speculators were already long yen, and most surprisingly, the yen weakened after the hike, instead of strengthening - meaning no carry trade unwind.

ETF flows remain mixed, with BlackRock’s IBIT seeing $161.3M in total Bitcoin ETF outflows. 

Some other notable crypto news:

  • Solana got hammered by DDoS attacks this week. The network revealed it’s been under sustained assault for the past week, marking the fourth-largest DDoS event in distributed systems history.

  • The China crackdown continues. Authorities tightened rules on domestic Bitcoin mining, forcing shutdowns in Xinjiang. 

This Week in TradFi

Markets endured a volatile week as investors rotated out of high-flying AI stocks, digested delayed economic data from the government shutdown, and braced for, then absorbed the Bank of Japan’s rate hike to a 30-year high.

  • Tech stocks suffered their worst stretch in weeks as skepticism about AI valuations continues to intensify.

    • The S&P 500 fell for four consecutive sessions through Wednesday, dropping 1.16% on Wednesday alone to $6,721.43. The Nasdaq got hammered, falling 1.81% to $22,693.32.

  • The November jobs report - delayed by the government shutdown - showed 64,000 new payrolls, slightly above the 50,000 expected. However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6%, from 4.4%, raising concerns about labor market softness.

  • Markets snapped their losing streak Thursday after the delayed November CPI report showed headline inflation at 2.7%, well below the 3.1% economists expected. 

    • The S&P and Nasdaq both jumped around 1% in response to the news.

  • The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25bps to 0.75% on Thursday - the highest since 1995 - and shockingly, markets rallied. 

    • The yen initially weakened to 157 per dollar before reversing toward 153, but the feared violent deleveraging never quite happened. 

    • Asian markets rallied on the news, with Japan’s Nikkei rising 1.3%, South Korea’s Kospi rising 0.72%, and India’s Sensex jumping 350 points. 

    • Japan’s 10-year bond yields broke 2% for the first time in over a decade.

This Week in Tech

All OpenAI this week -

ChatGPT has launched an app store, opening it up to app developers beyond just major platforms. 

  • In October when the company had initially announced the arrival of apps in ChatGPT, major platforms like Expedia, Spotify, and Zillow announced integrations that would allow users to directly access their services in ChatGPT conversations.

  • Now, the company is opening up the field to all developers. Developers can submit their apps to OpenAI’s Developer platform, where they can track approval status.

  • Approved apps will start launching in the coming year. 

Amazon is reportedly in talks to invest $10B in OpenAI (talk about a circular deal!). 

  • Initially reported by The Information, the deal would have OpenAI using Amazon’s AI chips. 

  • If the deal materializes, it would value OpenAI at more than $500B.

  • Amazon has been looking to diversify its bets in the AI race, so far having invested $8B in Anthropic. And OpenAI is now free to strike deals with investors other than Microsoft after completing its transition to a for-profit model.

  • Amazon investing in OpenAI is yet another in a series of circular deals in the AI space.

As usual, below are some fundraising announcements, M&A, and tech personnel changes that caught our eye:

  • Databricks has raised a more than $4B Series L at a $134B valuation - up 34% from its $100B valuation three months ago.

  • Amazon has appointed AWS exec Peter DeSantis to lead a new AI-focused organization within the company. 

  • Vibe-coding startup Lovable has raised a $330M Series B at a $6.6B valuation. 

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.