Arch's 2026 Predictions

View from the Arch #115

January 02, 2026

Happy New Year! It’s that time of the year when we throw together our bingo cards for 2026….

Crypto in 2026

After a 2025 that was definitely not what we were hoping for, 2026 cannot come soon enough. Our predictions for crypto in the new year (and just in case you forgot, this is not financial advice!) -

  1. Bitcoin outperforms gold in 2026 and makes new all time highs, marking the end of the 4-year cycle

  2. At least three nations - fueled by smaller nations seeking monetary independence or hedging against dollar dominance - announce meaningful Bitcoin reserve positions, triggering a domino effect. The US government also rolls out a plan to fund the budget neutral Bitcoin reserve.

  3. A major US bank broadly rolls out Bitcoin and crypto custody services.

  4. Total stable-coin market cap grows by 50% and remains 99% USD dominated

  5. $10B+ of M&A transactions occur in the crypto space, largely driven by traditional financial players acquiring private crypto companies

TradFi in 2026

Markets enter 2026 with solid 2025 gains but facing significant headwinds - Fed divisions over rate policy, elevated valuations, and lingering inflation concerns. Here’s how we think the year will unfold -

  1. The S&P 500 experiences its first 15% correction since 2022 in Q2, triggered by disappointing AI revenue monetization and Fed policy uncertainty

  2. Small-caps finally outperform large-caps for the first time in years, as investors rotate into broader market participation

  3. Gold surpasses $5,000/oz, building on 2025’s 70% gain

  4. The Magnificent Seven officially breaks apart as a cohesive group - Microsoft, Alphabet, and Nvidia continue rallying, while Apple and Tesla underperform

  5. Mixed signals in the US economy result in just one 25bp rate cut

Tech in 2026

The AI infrastructure race reached fever pitch last year, and 2026 will require companies to show whether all this spending can actually translate into revenue. Some predictions -

  1. At least one Magnificent Seven company slashes AI capex guidance by 30%+, potentially triggering sector-wide volatility

  2. Anthropic or OpenAI file for an IPO and Tesla acquires xAi

  3. China’s AI capabilities force a major U.S. policy reversal on chip export restrictions

  4. Nvidia’s market cap exceeds $5 trillion

  5. OpenAI launches a revenue-generating consumer product (beyond ChatGPT) that hits $5B+ annual run rate - whether it’s AI-powered search, productivity tools, or something entirely new

We’ll check in throughout the course of this year to see how these predictions play out!

Arch is building a next-gen wealth management platform for individuals holding Alternative Assets. Our flagship product is the crypto-backed loan, which allows you to securely and affordably borrow against your crypto.

Disclaimer: None of the above is financial advice, seriously.